Canada’s population shrinks, loses 55,000 residents in first quarter By Lai Gidado
Canada’s population shrinks, loses 55,000 residents in first quarter
By Lai Gidado
Canada’s population continued its downward trend in the first quarter of 2026, shrinking by about 55,000 people as lower immigration levels and a natural decrease in population weighed on growth, according to new data released by Statistics Canada.
The agency estimated the country’s population at 41,417,056 as of April 1, representing a 0.1 per cent decrease.
The decline was attributed to lower immigration levels and a situation in which deaths slightly outnumbered births during the period.
The preliminary data comes just months after Statistics Canada reported an overall population decline in 2025, marking a rare demographic shift for the country.
According to the report, the number of permanent immigrants admitted into Canada during the first three months of 2026 fell by about 20 per cent compared to the same period in 2025.
Permanent immigration dropped to 83,149 from 104,210 recorded a year earlier.
The number of non-permanent residents also decreased significantly, falling by more than 117,000.
However, Statistics Canada noted that these estimates could be revised due to changing international migration policies.
The country’s natural population growth also turned negative during the quarter. Statistics Canada reported that 155 more people died than were born nationwide, resulting in a natural decrease in population.
Economic Implications
Economists say the population decline is likely contributing to recent indicators showing weakness in Canada’s economy.
Chief Economist of the National Bank of Canada, Stéfane Marion, said shrinking population figures have partly influenced declines in economic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
“When population growth is taken into account, the signals coming from the Canadian economy are less alarming,” Marion said.
Economist Mikal Skuterud explained that a smaller population reduces the overall size of the economy, often referred to as the “economic pie.”
However, he noted that a smaller population can sometimes result in a larger share of economic output per person.
Skuterud, a professor of economics at the University of Waterloo, said Canada’s GDP per capita has improved as population growth slowed.
“As a result of the Liberal government’s reversal of its immigration policy, GDP per-capita growth rates have moved from negative territory to flat or slightly positive,” he said.
Marion described the rapid immigration growth experienced in 2022 and 2023 as unsustainable.
Statistics Canada also noted that the reduction in permanent immigration aligns with the federal government’s lower immigration targets.
Both economists argued that future economic growth will require more than simply increasing immigration levels.
“To expand the overall size of the economic pie, productivity and contributions from workers must increase,” Skuterud said.
They also pointed to declining numbers of international students as another factor affecting both population growth and economic performance.
Skuterud noted that many international students worked in low-wage positions and contributed less significantly to overall GDP growth.
As international student enrolment continues to fall, its impact on Canada’s population and economy is also expected to diminish.
Marion further noted that global economic uncertainty and ongoing concerns about access to the U.S. market have prevented Canada’s economy from operating at full capacity.
“Business investment remains weak or negative at the moment.
Traditionally, successful immigration absorption requires strong business investment because that is what creates jobs,” he said.
While most provinces experienced population declines, Alberta continued to record growth.
Ontario and British Columbia witnessed larger declines in temporary residents compared to gains in permanent immigrants, a trend that was less pronounced in Alberta.
“Alberta is still growing. Among Canada’s large provinces, it remains the only one showing continued population expansion,” Marion said.
Part of Alberta’s growth was driven by interprovincial migration, as Canadians from other provinces relocated there.
The province also recorded more births than deaths, bucking the national trend.
Marion added that temporary foreign workers and international students accounted for much of the population decline in Ontario and British Columbia.
Although both provinces continued to attract newcomers, the number of temporary residents leaving exceeded the number of permanent immigrants settling there.
