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BAT has been a symbol of political rebirth in Nigeria. This national political rebirth is the single most sought unity in all the geo-political zones in Nigeria. Some may curse it for continuing austerity measures it inherited from past governments for the country that knows all too well the dangers inherent with that policy.
The previous government has retreated from fuel price increase leaving the present government like a pawn in a political game. Will BAT symbolise the opposite, the eldorado that Nigerians had hoped will usher social and economic boom?
We have seen since the inauguration address with subsidy on fuel removals, the prices of commodities have risen ten fold, destroying personal savings without the govt promised palliatives. Amid chaos, the Labour Unions are threatening industrial strikes, that may drag the country’s economy backward.
Nigeria has so far escaped from the unwelcome change of government. Our sister countries in ECOWAS, Guinea, Mali, Burkino-Faso, Niger and TChad that we share border with have been unfortunate to witness the return of military through coups. Even though they belong to francophone, they are still part of our will to democratic processes. They are giving up this symbol of national rebirth, a word that does not fit into the ECOWAS understanding. The room to manoeuvre has been constrained by the great loss democracy suffered in those contiguous states, by first falling victims of AU resolutions against undemocratic change of government.
The consequences of this, and not surprisingly, is the economic sanctions with its attendant effect, like stopping official economic transaction which shall stall trading with their foreign partners, suspension of loans and investments and loss of important voice at the heart of African Union.
I have reviewed various presentations on the recent military coup in Niger and some of the reasons advanced stand for themselves. However, there is a good chance to resolve the matter without necessarily reinstalling the ousted President or military intervention.
From our personal experience in this country, when a military coup has taken place, you need to observe the populace to understand its import. Jubilations and external support alone cannot be the only determining factor.
One. RULE OF LAW. Military govts even though rule by decree, must observe both multi and bilateral agreements of the previous govts. As the saying goes” pacta sunt servanda “. The country cannot afford to be in isolation no matter the crime it may alleged committed to it by anyone.
- Embargoes especially of economic nature can be very bitting and could result into “banditry”. The sub region is already saturated with armed banditry and similar criminal activities that would make the regime very unpopular if the situation continues. There is every likelihood that these criminal activities will continue unabated. Nigereins will come out to look for food after all the euphoria and that’s when we in Nigeria shall begin to feel the pinch.
Three. The traditional Western support will be pushed to back burner. No western nation will want to associate with “undemocratic” regime no matter how glamorous it may look. This will make the Nigerein leadership to hurriedly fashion out a program of disengagement. It is not what Africa look for or seek. But it is the most likely honourable exit strategy for the military.
Four. The sympathies are not for the ousted President, rather for masses of Niger. How do you contain a mass of hungry people when you have an outlaw at the helm of state affairs?. No matter the sympathy, a military govt cannot be anything other than a non constitutional govt.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE.
This situation calls for our political leaders to demonstrate their democratic credentials through negotiations in order to avoid serious conflict. How to accommodate, collaborate and compromise is the task before Jagaban.
WARNING: “A man on the ground fears no fall”.
02/08/2023
