Nigeria’s Roads and CNG Fiasco: A Ticking Time Bomb for Disaster. By Chidi Ekeh 

Nigeria’s Roads and CNG Fiasco: A Ticking Time Bomb for Disaster. By Chidi Ekeh 

In Nigeria, a nation blessed with vast natural gas reserves and audacious dreams of a cleaner energy future, the Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) project was heralded as a revolutionary leap toward affordability and sustainability. Yet, as 4,000 gleaming CNG trucks roll out from Dangote’s refineries to crisscross the nation, they are not heralds of progress but harbingers of an impending catastrophe. Nigeria’s roads—rated among the world’s worst—and the crumbling CNG initiative are a deadly cocktail, poised to ignite economic chaos, environmental ruin, and a humanitarian crisis. If nothing is done, this nation risks not just a stalled energy transition but a national disaster that could shake its foundations. Yet, within this looming calamity lies a golden opportunity for bold governance and visionary investors to rewrite Nigeria’s future.

THE ROAD TO RUIN: A Global Embarrassment
Nigeria’s roads are a national scandal, and the numbers tell a grim story. The World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index (2019) ranks Nigeria’s road quality at a pitiful 2.5 out of 7, placing it 127th out of 137 countries. World Population Review’s 2025 data is even bleaker, scoring Nigeria at 2.4, among the bottom 10 globally, alongside war-torn Yemen and Chad. Only 19.7% of Nigeria’s rural population lives within 2km of an all-season road, far below the 31.5% average for Africa’s middle-income nations. Potholes swallow vehicles, bridges creak under strain, and rural roads dissolve into muddy traps during rains. These are not mere inconveniences—they are death traps, with over 1.19 million global road fatalities annually, 92% of which burden low- and middle-income countries like Nigeria.

Now, imagine 4,000 CNG trucks—laden with volatile fuel—navigating this crumbling infrastructure. Dangote’s ambitious fleet, intended to revolutionize fuel distribution, faces roads that are not just inadequate but actively hostile. The Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, a critical artery, is a patchwork of delays and hazards. The Abuja-Kaduna road, plagued by banditry and potholes, is a gamble for any driver. In the North, where CNG adoption is near-nonexistent, trucks will traverse unpaved, flood-prone routes, risking accidents that could spark fires or explosions. The World Bank warns that Nigeria’s infrastructure quality is “substantially lower” than its peers, and without urgent action, these trucks will not deliver progress but tragedy.

THE CNG MIRAGE: A Dream Derailed
The CNG project, launched with fanfare to offset fuel subsidy removal, is collapsing under its own weight. With fewer than 90 refuelling stations nationwide—0.25 per million people compared to India’s 6 or Pakistan’s 7—Nigeria’s CNG infrastructure is a cruel joke. In the North-East, states have received as few as 10 CNG buses, many sitting idle for lack of refuelling points. Conversion kits, critical for retrofitting vehicles, are scarce due to global supply chain snags and import delays, leaving government centers dormant. The cost of conversion remains prohibitive for most Nigerians, and subsidies have failed to bridge the gap. Safety concerns loom large: shoddy conversions at unregulated centers risk leaks and explosions, a fear amplified by Malaysia’s recent ban on CNG vehicles after safety incidents.

The numbers are stark. Less than 1% of Nigeria’s vehicles run on CNG, compared to 11% in India and 21% in Pakistan. The African Development Bank and World Bank highlight Nigeria’s infrastructure deficits as a barrier to competitiveness, with the CNG project’s failure emblematic of broader systemic issues: poor planning, inconsistent policies, and chronic underinvestment. Over N122 billion and $200 million have been earmarked, yet the results are invisible—lost to inefficiencies or mismanagement. As Dangote’s trucks hit the roads, they will face not just potholes but a logistical nightmare: no refuelling stations, no spare parts, and no trust from a populace weary of empty promises.

THE IMPENDING DISASTER: A Nation at Risk
Picture this: a CNG truck, navigating a cratered road in the Niger Delta, hits a pothole and overturns. A spark ignites the compressed gas, triggering an explosion that claims lives and razes communities. Or consider the economic fallout: trucks stranded without fuel, supply chains collapsing, and fuel prices soaring further, pushing inflation beyond the current 34%. Rural farmers, already cut off by poor roads, will face even greater isolation as transport costs skyrocket. The environmental toll is equally dire—leaks from poorly maintained CNG systems could release methane, a greenhouse gas 25 times more potent than CO2, undermining the very “green” promise of the initiative.

This is not hyperbole but a plausible scenario, grounded in global data. The World Bank’s 2025 report on road safety financing notes that low-income countries like Nigeria bear 92% of global road crash fatalities despite having just 10% of paved interurban roads. Without robust infrastructure and regulatory oversight, Dangote’s 4,000 trucks could become rolling liabilities, amplifying risks in a nation already grappling with insecurity and economic fragility. The government’s inaction is not just negligence—it’s a betrayal of the millions who believed in the CNG dream.

THE OPPORTUNITY: A Call to Arms
Yet, within this crisis lies a transformative opportunity. Nigeria’s road and CNG failures are not inevitable; they are a clarion call for bold action. For the government, the path forward is clear:
– *Massive Infrastructure Investment:* Partner with the African Development Bank and private investors to rehabilitate 50,000km of federal roads, prioritizing economic corridors like Lagos-Kano and Port Harcourt-Enugu. The $263.8 million Abia State project is a model—scale it nationwide.
– *CNG Infrastructure Blitz:* Build 1,000 refuelling stations by 2027, targeting underserved regions like the North and Southeast. Standardize conversion centers with rigorous safety protocols, learning from India’s success.
– *Policy Overhaul:* Streamline funding, eliminate bureaucratic bottlenecks, and launch aggressive public awareness campaigns to drive CNG adoption.

For investors, the opportunity is equally compelling. Nigeria’s 200 million-plus population and vast gas reserves make it a potential CNG powerhouse. Private capital can fund refuelling stations, conversion kit manufacturing, and road maintenance concessions, yielding high returns in a market desperate for solutions. Dangote’s investment is a start, but it needs partners—local and global—to scale impact. The African Development Bank’s success with the Enugu-Bamenda Highway shows what’s possible when public and private sectors align.

A POLITICAL RECKONING
This is not just a policy issue; it’s a political powder keg. Nigerians are tired of promises that crumble like their roads. The CNG failure, coupled with the road crisis, could ignite protests fiercer than those sparked by subsidy removals. Politicians who ignore this risk their legitimacy. The National Assembly must act now, holding emergency sessions to allocate emergency funds and demand accountability. Governors, especially in the North and Southeast, must prioritize local infrastructure to complement federal efforts. Citizens must demand transparency—where is the N122 billion for CNG? Why are roads still death traps?

This is Nigeria’s moment of truth. The government and investors can either seize this opportunity to build a modern, sustainable transport system or let the nation careen toward disaster. The world is watching, and history will judge us by our actions—or our inaction. Let’s not wait for the first CNG truck to explode before we act. The time for excuses is over. Fix the roads. Make CNG work. Save Nigeria.
–Chidi Ekeh writes from Abuja
chidiekeh@yahoo.com