NUDGING A NATION TO ACT: POTUS challenges our Hope Agenda. By M K ILYASU

NUDGING A NATION TO ACT:

POTUS challenges our Hope Agenda.

By M K ILYASU

Basic Insights

Religious protection succeeds when framed as civilian protection. This is to avoid sectarian bias and maintains legitimacy under international law.

Multilateral legitimacy matters. UN authorization or regional consensus strengthens intervention credibility and post-conflict reconstruction.

Local capacity is decisive. Durable protection depends on empowering local security and governance institutions after intervention.

Early diplomatic pressure and sanctions can pre-empt the need for force. THIS IS WHERE PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SUCCEEDED WITH HIS PERSONAL DIPLOMACY ON NIGERIA.

The task before PBAT is to innovate a diplomatic framework in which mutual security trade-offs can compensate for security and economic forbearance.

Introduction

Let me begin on the assumption that U S President Donald Trump (POTUS) has no desire to bring war to Nigeria but only to sensitize and ginger Nigerian govt and Nigerians to do the needful in addressing insecurities/banditry.

It is important for PBAT to remember that Nationalism and politics stand in a dialectical relationship: ideas create states, and states create the conditions for intense loyalty to one’s nation, promoting its culture, interests, and sovereignty above others. This is what makes nationalism to thrive.

What our experience must have taught us is that nationalism without sovereignty is likely to collapse. We should heed the recent warning of our elder statesmen President Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida that national unity can survive, but only where justice strives. It requires the capacity for self-defense and the power to secure its own future.

When we look from a certain angle at a vision, it is perhaps more proper to say that its achievement and political power are inseparable.

Let’s recall Aristotle in his work “The Politics”as interpreted by Jonathan Silver, and I quote, “No one could deny that the plays we perform, the songs we sing, the media we consume, the languages we speak, all have a role in determining our political horizons”.

Beginning of the End.

Reasons as to why POTUS will not go to war with Nigeria are multitudes.

Let’s examine them.

Firstly, some prominent church groups in Nigeria have come out in support of govt position on the alleged genocide against Christians in Nigeria as this was the reason for POTUS alleged intendment.

In fact, some Christian leaders called the allegation unprecedented, while condemning the ongoing banditry with its serious humanitarian consequences.

Secondly, it should not be mistaken for a fact that the US military will not engage Nigerian military because the existing pact on security cooperation negates such scenario. There are hidden strategic benefits like regional stability which the US is aware that Nigeria is providing in the West and Central Africa sub-region.

Thirdly, a secured Nigeria stabilizes the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel, strengthening ECOWAS security frameworks, a commendable effort prescribed in the UN Charter as well as all continental and sub-continental arrangements. Nigeria’s leadership in ECOWAS and ECOMOG outings in Liberia and Sierra Leone was in compliance with the UN charter prescriptions on World Peace and Stability. A VERY COMMENDABLE EFFORT BY NIGERIA INDEED.

Fourthly, deepening ties with the U.S. enhance Nigeria’s diplomatic leverage and credibility as a regional leader, so the U.S. presence or partnership discourages the proliferation of arms and transnational criminal networks. The end result is an improved Global Standing for both countries on all matters affecting human capital development.

A carefully structured U.S.–Nigeria military partnership can strengthen Nigeria’s internal security, stabilize the wider regional space, and enhance bilateral relations. This must be done consciously bearing our sovereignty, clearly transparent, and link to development.
With appropriate safeguards, improved collaboration with the US could represent a turning point in Nigeria’s long-term fight against insecurity.

Any overt attempt by the US to intervene into the internal affairs of Nigeria militarily is required to receive the blessings of the US Congress and the UN Security Council.

I hold the belief that there exist many ways in which the US can help Nigeria to overcome criminalities without committing boots to Nigerian soil.

On the national front, our National Assembly must continue to play “important role” because Nigeria has for close to 30 years been seized with constitutional crisis on how to overcome sectarian disputes. This means it should not be intimidated, rather must engage the US on ways best to overcome her security challenges.

These persistent threats from banditry, kidnappings, and insurgency particularly in the North-West, North-Central, and Middle Belt regions undermine internal security, food supply, and investor confidence, while overburdening the security agencies.

In this context, strategic military cooperation with the United States presents a potential force multiplier enhancing Nigeria’s capacity to combat organized armed groups through advanced technology, training, and intelligence integration.

When people feel that they can get away with breaking the law, they start believing they can get away with murder. Just as when sectarian disputes were ignored, or when a politician hesitate to condemn kidnappings for ransom money sharing, then our nascent democracy is doomed to failure. These problems have become worse when the political class, traditional institutions, and clergy involved in banditry, sharing in the ransom monies and refusal to condemn these insurgencies and communal violence.

If there is one lesson to be learned from this experience, it’s the leadership betrayals, lack of vigorous policing and unclear messages to our communities that have failed to reinforced vigilance to stop the spread of killings.

So what can the Nigerian state do by way of showing seriousness of tackling these communal violence?

It’s clear from Trump’s body language, that bringing Nigeria’s insecurities public on his personal account has tremendous success. It has brought to fore the desired international concerns on the Nigeria’s ongoing fight against banditry. And this is where PBAT must clearly demonstrate his acute sense of political leadership.

My personal assessment of PBAT body language goes to suggest that he does things by doing what he doesn’t say he would do. He says what he thinks and actually says what many people think as well, but maybe doesn’t dare to say and that’s why he’s so frightfully politically successful.

Yes, there have been several instances in history where military intervention either by foreign powers or domestic forces was used, at least partly, to protect or save civilian populations, Christians inclusive, from persecution, genocide, or imminent violence. But, in the case of Nigerian civilian population, lives of Christians have not come to imminent threat. Nigerians of all religious persuasions are under the threat of militants as well as insurgents and terrorists.

Nigeria has been under “War Cloud” for too long. Presidents and Heads of Government from other nations should come out to support this country in the fight against insecurity.

Many commentators supporting US military intervention since POTUS remarks have argued that our security has been breached while insurgents operating under the doctrine of secrecy and surprises have shocked the nation with thousand deaths in our communities, a fearful price for our political leaders to pay. The question often asked is how much human waste we can suffer while debating for a viable political solution.

Mallam Mohammed Kabir Ilyasu a public affairs commentator writes from Kaduna Nigeria 

08/12/2025