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Ondo State and the Politics of 2028
As the November off-season gubernatorial election beacons in Ondo State with its political almighty formula (you remember that in Mathematics?), given the peculiar nature of politics in the state where power spins between north, south and central, the challenge with the people of the state (particularly Southerners) is who becomes the next governor of the Sunshine State to balance the political equation that the demise of Arakunrin Odunayo Akeredolu (Aketi) altered as we navigate through this election season?
In Ondo like other states in Nigeria, off-season elections originated from judicial decisions that overturned some state elections that were regarded as stolen mandates during Obasanjo’s second term in office, thereby leading to alteration in INEC election timetable. Beginning with when Peter Obi of APGA recovered his stolen mandate from PDP in 2006 and became the Governor of Anambra State, Ondo, Edo, Ekiti and Osun State followed in 2007 while other states like Imo, Bayelsa and Kogi joined much later.
When Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999, the northern part of Ondo State under the platform of Alliance for Democracy (AD) produced the late Adebayo Adefarati as the first fourth republic governor who led the state for only four years like his counterparts in other parts of the south western states. Also like other states in the region except Lagos, Ondo State was captured in 2003 gubernatorial election by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Dr Olusegun Agagu from the south became the democratically elected governor after Adefarati from the north.
Re-elected for another round of four years in 2007, the second term victory of Olusegun Agagu did not last as he was successfully challenged by Olusegun Mimiko of the Labour Party. Agagu’s tenure as governor of Ondo State was therefore terminated on 23rd February 2009 on the verdict of the Court of Appeal sitting in Benin that confirmed the earlier ruling of the justice Nabaruma-led Tribunal in Akure. This therefore made the southern part of the state under Olusegun Agagu to spent six year in office. Taking over governorship mandate from Agagu in 2009 under Labour Party, Governor Olusegun Mimiko spent his full 8 years from Ondo Central before it went back to the north when the late Arakunrin Akeredolu took the baton from Mimiko and spent 7 years before death snatched him away from us.
Going by the above therefore, the north has in the fourth republic (25 years) enjoyed 11 years as the landlord of Alagbaka Government House (4 years of Adefarati and 7 years of Arakunrin Akeredolu) while the central, 8 years of Mimiko and the south 6 years of Agagu plus the 1 year of Lucky Aiyedatiwa to conclude Aketi’s administration. Now, the challenge of many southerners lies in the constitutional amendment signed by the former president Muhammadu Buhari that precludes a deputy who has completed his principal’s term from running for office more than once. Meaning that, should Aiyedatiwa wins the November governorship election, he may not be able to go beyond one term thereby limiting the chance of the south to a single term and thus lagging behind in the political equation of the state.
However, having generally agreed across the state that it is the turn of the region (south) to produce the nest governor of the state, it is quite interesting that the two major gladiators among the many contestants currently in the race from the two major political parties were former deputy governors of Arakunrin Akeredolu and also NDDC members. But while Agboola Ajayi who is contesting under the People’s Democratic Party will also bring his experience as a lawyer and former lawmaker to bare, Lucky Aiyedatiwa who is currently completing the tenure of Aketi, his boss, will no doubt has more advantage over all his rivals including Agboola Ajayi having been at the headship of the state for close to a year now.
Among such factors consider to favour the incumbent governor and give him lead over other candidates are his numerous giant steps to move the state forward after the demise of Aketi. In less than one year of paddling the canoe of the state, he has made assiduous efforts to address the challenge of infrastructural development in the state, improve economic growth and taking the health sector to another level. This in addition to the power of incumbency in Nigeria politics will definitely play significant role as we move towards November. Already as expected, the wind of defection has started blowing in the state as some prominent members of the People’s Democratic Party have defected to the ruling All Progressive Congress and more are expected to follow in matter of days as expected of politics of Nigeria.
The approval of the construction of 28km Akotogbo-Iju-Osun road in Irele Local Government which is expected to connect the Free Trade Zone of the state and the border with Edo State as well as the Lagos – Calabar Coastal High Way route in the state, are parts of the giant steps by Aiyedatiwa to rejuvenate the infrastructural development of Ondo State which will undoubtedly enhance his chances of re-election in the region. Also in this direction is the approval of the construction of a new state judiciary complex, the renovation of the Akure township stadium and the substantial improvement of road infrastructure across the state. Already, cross-sections of people have alluded to the economic importance of these projects.
While the 28km Akotogbo Iju-Osun Road is expected to add serious economic value to the state due to its proximity with Free Trade Zone, the new judicial complex according to Dr Ajulo will definitely provide suitable and dignified environment for the administration of justice. The rehabilitation of Akure township stadium will see to the upgrading of major facilities such as the main bowl football pitch, basketball courts, swimming pool and many others. This is also expected to improve the standard of the stadium thereby attracting the hosting of significant events that will further contribute to the increase in economic activities of the state. The renovation of the secretariat of the Ondo State Council of Obas in Akure will also add to the acceptance of Lucky Aiyedatiwa’s administration among the Obas in the state and their subjects.
Another factor that can also help APC and the current governor to secure victory is the developing crisis in the PDP on the constitution of campaign council by Agboola Ajayi himself which the state chapter of the party through its Publicity Secretary, Kennedy Peretei has referred to as embarrassing and a violation of the Party’s constitution (2017 as amended). According to Kennedy Peretei who declared the announcement null and void, Article 46(1) and 40(1)(a)(b) and (c) do not permit such announcement by an individual not known to the party. Also diverting the party’s full concentration from November election is the rumour that the party now has a new state chairman which Kennedy Peretei also discountenanced and referred to as fake, baseless, unconstitutional, mutinous and calculated attempt to undermine efforts at rallying support for the PDP governorship candidate.
It is instrumental to state that the commitment of Aiyedatiwa to sustaining the legacies of his boss in the area of infrastructural development, promotion of the welfare of the people and living by that promise is also a great factor that will endear him to some set of people, particularly Aketi loyalists who would naturally want the legacy of their leader never to die. This can also be seen in the speed with which he settled salary arrears and ensures that he pays salary of workers as at when due which according to different accounts has placed him in the good book of workers.
Apart from being a former member of the House of Representative and a deputy governor, Agboola Ajayi is a grassroots politician who is very vast in his political trade. As such, many inhabitants of the state and political observers believe he is not a push over and may shock everyone using his past political experience having moved from being a ward chairman, ward secretary, twice a supervisory councilor, chairman of Ese-Odo Local Government, NDDC and more.
The fact that this is not the first time of Agboola to fight for the number one seat may also count for him as an advantage. He was in the race in 2020 when he first tested his popularity in PDP but later migrated to Zenith Labour Party immediately he lost PDP ticket to Eyitayo Jegede. So, this election being his second coming may after all, give him some sympathy votes. In this direction, those who believe southern region deserves two terms may also want to align with Agboola as rumour already has it that some notable figures from the south are already rooting for him. Still, so many still believe that the emergence of Aiyedatiwa was a divine mathematics which no man can unravel.
Another factor which some people are thinking may work in favour of Agboola is the Mimiko factor. Apart from Agboola being close to Mimiko, running from PDP platform where Mimiko belongs may work in his favour but again, some cross section of Ondo State publics have discountenanced this fact by claiming that Aiyedatiwa is also a godson of Mimiko thereby giving none of them the prerogative of support of the former governor. As the date for the dance thus draws by, it is important to also point out to those who may not know that Aiyedatiwa and Agboola are close friends. Apart from the duo being from the Southern part of Ondo State, they are both from riverside of the state and the same Ese Odo/Apoi Local Government until the local government was divided some years ago.
It therefore makes November election an interesting one as two friends scuffle for the soul of one seat. Again, as every local government in the state has its political history vis-à-vis voting power, among the local governments known for their voting strengths are Akure South, Ondo West and Owo Local Government. With the recently awarded projects in Akure South with other forms of beautification of the city by the state government, one may believe Aiyedatiwa will coast home to victory ditto to other areas where he has extended the gesture of the power of incumbency.
In all, so many people forget to account for the factor of God which the holy book says there is no power but of God and that the powers that be are ordained of God. In this regard is the belief of many that Aiyedatiwa was not the original candidate of Aketi before his death but of course, God is not man. The politics of 2010 that brought Goodluck Jonathan to power is still fresh with us and how his coming led to the downfall of many governors who saw him as not qualify, inferior to the system and a new comer but alas! Human opinion did not stop God’s agenda for him. In God’s agenda too, a four year term could outperform two terms and more.
It is certainly an interesting season in the Sunshine State. Nevertheless, nothing should be left to chance because a day in politics is a long time let alone four months. As November approaches, many more factors will still play out for different candidates and their political parties that will affect their fortune in the election. For instance, the factor of Aketi will definitely win Owo Local Government for APC as a mark of honour for their late hero because for many years, PDP enjoyed Okitipupa Local Government’s victory after the late Governor Agagu left office until the centre couldn’t hold anymore. Regardless of what, this factor will also work for Mimiko in Ondo and so much more.
As events would begin to unfold itself therefore, we must also remember some of the lessons elections in Nigeria has taught us such as fourth position becoming first position and people who did not stand for election becoming governors. So, Aiyedatiwa stands tall to winning November election as well as Agboola and other political parties as political permutations continue. But should Aiyedatiwa wins, is it impossible for the south to produce another governor that will complete the remaining 4 years (second term of the south)? Time will tell.
May it shine again in our dear Sunshine State.
Olushola Omogbehin a public affairs analyst writes from Abuja FCT Nigeria
