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Though, Not Yet Uhuru: Tinubu’s Economic Reengineering and Nigerians’ Socioeconomic Psychology
President Bola Tinubu’s administration has introduced significant economic reforms to reshape Nigeria’s economy and reset the socioeconomic psychology of its citizens. The reforms are multidimensional, targeting the oil, monetary, and agricultural sectors while aiming for total economic diversification. By shifting focus from petroleum to gas and promoting agricultural self-sufficiency, the government seeks to establish a more sustainable and diversified economy, encouraging a culture of savings and investment among Nigerians.
Arguments Supporting Tinubu’s Reforms
One of the hallmark reforms is the removal of fuel subsidies. While controversial, this measure has freed up funds for critical sectors, allowing states access to more resources. Similarly, the liberalisation of the exchange rate is expected to enhance economic efficiency and stimulate private sector growth, despite initial depreciation of the Naira. This move addresses the currency’s inflated value and seeks to attract foreign investors into Nigeria’s economic space.
The government’s drive for economic diversification is evident in its emphasis on gas over oil exports. The Presidential Initiative on Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a major step, promising to lower transportation costs by 50 to 60 per cent, thereby easing the burden on Nigerians.
In the agricultural sector, the government’s efforts have been noteworthy, focusing on promoting self-sufficiency and reducing reliance on imports. Initiatives such as the National Agricultural Technology Programme aim to improve crop yields and incorporate technology into farming. The Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme provides loans to small holder farmers at subsidised interest rates, while policies restricting the importation of products like rice and poultry encourage domestic production. Additionally, the National Livestock Transformation Plan seeks to enhance the livestock industry and mitigate conflicts between farmers and herders. These initiatives have led to growth in Nigeria’s agricultural sector, with the country achieving self-sufficiency in the production of certain crops, such as rice.
Credit reforms also aim to foster financial inclusion and alleviate poverty. Initiatives like the Students Loan Fund and the Consumer Credit Corporation are designed to empower students and workers, enabling them to pursue academic and economic ambitions, which could foster national development.
Tinubu’s administration has prioritised security reforms, launching military operations in the North-East and North-West to combat terrorism and banditry. Structural measures, such as forming a National Security Council and appointing new service chiefs, have resulted in recapturing key territories and reducing banditry in some regions.
Arguments Against Tinubu’s Reforms
Despite these efforts, Tinubu’s reforms have faced significant criticism. The removal of fuel subsidies has caused a drastic increase in fuel prices rising by as much as 230 per cent in some areas making transportation and daily life increasingly unaffordable for ordinary Nigerians. Coupled with the liberalisation of the exchange rate, the sharp depreciation of the Naira has resulted in inflation skyrocketing to 33.69 per cent, with food inflation exceeding 40 per cent. This has led to a severe cost-of-living crisis.
In agriculture, while the government’s initiatives show promise, implementation challenges persist. The Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme has been criticised for being inaccessible to many small holder farmers who lack the collateral required to secure loans. Policies restricting the importation of certain agricultural products have resulted in shortages and price increases, negatively affecting consumers. Furthermore, the National Livestock Transformation Plan has been criticised for insufficient funding and a lack of a clear implementation strategy, limiting its effectiveness. Critics also argue that the government’s emphasis on large-scale farming and commercial agriculture neglects the needs of small holder farmers, who form the backbone of Nigeria’s agricultural sector.
Critics of fiscal policy argue that it is overly austere, with a debt service-to-revenue ratio of 60 to 70 per cent, limiting the government’s ability to cushion the impact of its reforms. There is also dissatisfaction with the lack of transparency regarding the utilisation of subsidy savings, with spending priorities such as purchasing a presidential jet perceived as tone-deaf to public struggles.
Social programmes designed to mitigate economic hardship, such as the cash transfer initiative, have fallen short of expectations. The recent increase in the minimum wage has been rendered ineffective by soaring inflation, further fuelling public discontent. Protests have erupted across the country, highlighting widespread frustration with the government’s inability to address these challenges adequately.
Recommendations for Progress
To address these concerns, the government must prioritise transparency and public engagement. Clear plans for reinvesting subsidy savings into social programmes and infrastructure are crucial to building trust and ensuring accountability. Stronger institutions and good governance must be promoted by reinforcing the judiciary, upholding the rule of law, and ensuring accountability.
Critical infrastructure development such as roads, rail, energy, and healthcare should be prioritised to create a conducive environment for businesses and stimulate economic growth. In agriculture, efforts must focus on ensuring that small holder farmers benefit from credit schemes and that implementation strategies for programmes like the National Livestock Transformation Plan are clear and well-funded.
State governments must also step up by embracing self-reliance and reducing dependence on federal allocations. Local government autonomy should be actualised to empower communities to take ownership of their development initiatives.
Conclusion
President Tinubu’s economic reforms represent a bold step towards reengineering Nigeria’s economy and reshaping its socioeconomic landscape. While the initiatives offer significant potential, their impact has been overshadowed by immediate hardships and systemic inefficiencies. A balanced approach that integrates public engagement, accountability, and targeted investments is essential for achieving sustainable development and restoring public confidence.
Though progress has been made, much work remains to be done to realise a truly inclusive and prosperous Nigeria.
Akeem Bello writes from Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria. Can be reached on akbab8870@gmail.com
