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Senator Jimoh Ibrahim’s prediction that PDP ‘ll lose again to APC on November 16….. My humble response.
Having observed Donald Trump’s surprising victory with the Republican Party in the recent American elections, I feel compelled to weigh in on the prediction made by Senator Jimoh Ibrahim of Igbotako in Ondo State’s South Senatorial District.
Known for his ownership of the so-called University of Fortune, Senator Ibrahim has predicted a repeat defeat for the PDP against the APC in the upcoming Ondo State election.
Senator Ibrahim recounted his previous triumph over Agboola Ajayi of the PDP, who now stands against incumbent Governor Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa and the formidable machinery of Nigeria’s ruling party, the APC—currently steered by a political strategist who masterminded the PDP’s major setback in 2015.
I concur with Senator Ibrahim that election victories in Nigeria hinge on various factors, with financial liquidity and significant resources playing the most decisive role, irrespective of the sources of such wealth.
In Nigeria, the source of wealth hardly matters. To win, one simply needs to be rich and willing to share that wealth with constituents. Drug dealers or armed robbers, as long as they have not been jailed, can still win elections in Nigeria, as Donald Trump has similarly demonstrated in America.
The choice of candidate, aligned with this financial power, is also essential. Trump’s success, based on wealth alongside appeals to racism and gender bias, is a case in point, as I have highlighted in an article widely circulated on social media.
Other factors include the party’s name recognition, the ground game on election day, and efforts like party agents going door-to-door to bring voters to polling booths. Additionally, there are tactics like gerrymandering and electoral manipulation in collaboration with corrupt INEC officials and party agents, who sometimes alter vote counts from polling stations before they reach collation centres.
I recall being a returning officer for Kabba Ijumu Local Government of Kwara State in the 1973 Census, where the figures I recorded—1,200—mysteriously became 120,000 at the collation centre.
Then there’s voter suppression, exemplified by Trump, who led the public to believe he would win and that any loss would mean his victory was stolen. Such threats discouraged many voters from going to the polls.
We also saw Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, promising to contribute up to one billion dollars to ensure Trump’s victory. Four days before the election, Trump declared he had already won, a tactic not unfamiliar in Nigeria, where the ruling party can intimidate people into staying home if they are not voting for it.
The combination of these factors leads me to agree with Senator Ibrahim that Agboola Ajayi and the PDP are likely to lose to Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa on November 16. You may note it down.
If billionaires like Trump and Musk can sway an election in America, imagine the impact of wealth in Nigeria, where people are scavenging to survive.
This is why I publicly predicted that Governor Aiyedatiwa and the APC would defeat Agboola Ajayi and the PDP on November 16.
In fact, this same financial power is why Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa defeated Senator Jimoh Ibrahim in the APC primaries in Ondo State.
Although I am not a resident of Ondo State, I follow its politics closely as an Akure man with a vested interest in my home state. Moreover, as the former Director of DIFFRI (Directorate of Foods, Roads, and Rural Infrastructure) in Ondo State, assigned by my friend, the late Rear Admiral Okhai Mike Akhigbe, I developed a deep understanding of the state at the grassroots level.
I am well acquainted with Ondo and Ekiti’s mineral resources, including Agbabu’s bitumen, Igbokoda’s white sand for glass production, and offshore oil and gas in Obejedo, Zion Pepper, and Aiyetoro in Ilaje Ese Odo Local Government, as well as the potential for a seaport in Aiyetoro as a backup to Apapa Wharf and Lagos’s Row Row Seaport.
I make this analysis from my profound knowledge of the state and its growth potential within Nigeria—or the Yoruba Nation, should that vision materialise.
I record all this for posterity and future generations, as I know I will not be around forever.
I rest my case.
Prince Dr. Wumi Akintide writes from Oyemekun Terrace New York City
